Target missiles launched at joint exercise. (IDF Spokesman)

	Patriots to be fired in U.S.-Israel defense exercise Ha’aretz
	Israelis keep cool after Iraq attack
	Analysis: Israel's security crisis BBC Online

A regional war is increasingly likely, and Israelis had better prepare for it fast. This was the conclusion of panelists, including military commanders, politicians, and scholars, on last night's "Mishal Cham" interview program on Israel's Second Channel.

The segment began with a clip of George W. Bush warning Saddam Hussein, after the recent US-British air strike against Iraq, in the tone of a Biblical Commandment: "Thou shalt not develop weapons of mass destruction and thereby threaten our strong ally Israel."

Maj. Gen. (res.) Avihu Bin-Nun, former Air Force Commander observed that Israel had learned much since the Gulf War. He emphasized that the Air Force was capable of carrying out successful strikes against Iraqi missile bases and other strategic installations. Yet, he cautioned, such a mission should be reserved as a last resort, since a deep-penetration into Iraq would be likely to provoke a missile response that would threaten the home front.

Bin-Nun knows the territory. During the Gulf War of 1991, he planned counterattacks on Iraq that were never carried out. He had been given orders to strike Saddam's SCUDs installations on the third day of the War. Radar and refueling aircraft were sent into the skies above Israel in preparation for an attack. Apache helicopters were awaiting final orders to "carry out punitive actions." However, after intense pressure from the Bush administration, Israeli political leaders refrained from attacking even as Israeli urban centers along the coast came under nightly attack from Iraqi missiles.

Gen. (Res.) Yom-Tov Samia concurred with the increasing possibility of such a deteriorating scenario, and cited the hasty withdrawal from Lebanon and the lack of reaction to cross-border attacks by Hizbullah as a key factor in eroding the perception of Israel's deterrent power. He argued that the failure to respond strongly to Hizbullah attacks with assaults on Lebanon's essential infrastructure effectively "changed the rules of the game." He stressed that it was the responsibility of the incoming government to restore Israeli deterrence.

Ehud Sprinzak, Dean of the Lauder School of Government at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, gravely warned that the government must "change the diskette from peace to war, and prepare the public for the possibility of a wider conflict." Otherwise, he said, war was likely to "fall on Israel like thunder on a clear day."

Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh also cautioned that the development of a regional conflagration was now more likely than ever, a conflict that might involve Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran as well as the Palestinians. He advised that Israel was not likely to find any ally to defend her militarily and warned that the nation would be forced to defend itself.

Second Channel senior correspondent Emanuel Rosen observed that the deteriorating situation was contributing to the calls of both the outgoing and incoming Prime Ministers for unity. He cited a comment in Barak's letter to Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami, who had criticized his boss for considering joining Ariel Sharon's offer to join him in a national unity government: "You of all people, who read the secret material should know how important it is to have responsible hands on the wheel."

The late news last night quoted PM-elect Sharon expressing impatience with the Labor party for delaying the formation of a unity government despite the "serious" security situation.

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