Palestinian demonstrator showing support for Iraqi leader.  (AP)

	Israel's ultimate fear: "irrational" nuclear enemies Louis Beres
	Experts warn of wider war
	Israelis keep cool after Iraq attack
	Israel Defense Forces
	DEBKAfile

A German intelligence report released Saturday predicts that Saddam Hussein may have a deployable nuclear weapon within three years, and the means to deliver it to Europe by 2005. Israel may not have to wait so long. Currently, the Iraqis are thought to possess short-range missiles that can deliver a 300 kg payload 95 miles.

Those missiles were on the move last Thursday, according to an unconfirmed report published by DEBKAfile. The report, based on unnamed military and intelligence sources, indicated that six Iraqi armored divisions with ground-to-ground missile capabilities were moving toward the Syrian border and that American satellites had picked up Iraqi preparations for launching long-range surface missiles.

Israel reportedly went on high incoming missile alert and sent its warplanes scrambling over Syria, prepared to launch a pre-emptive strike, including the possible use of tactical neutron bombs, to eliminate the threats near Syria and deep in Iraqi territory. US and British warplanes were dispatched over Iraq to flatten long-range missile launch sites. In the end the Iraqis blinked, halted the missile movements, and both Israeli and allied forces stood down from their planned pre-emptive action. But this kind of brinkmanship is likely to recur in the coming days as Saddam tests the new US and Israeli governments.

Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) also presented evidence that Baghdad is stepping up efforts to produce chemical weapons and has increased buying abroad of the inputs needed to make biological weapons. The report estimates that there are between 4 and 16 factories in Iraq manufacturing chemical weapon components. There has been widespread Iraqi procurement activity for biological weapons, and the report states that production could be resumed in a brief time or may have started already.

The Bush administration is deeply concerned with Iraq's non-conventional capabilities. The threat may be the main reason for the new Administration's assertive position against Saddam Hussein, including the recent air strike on radar installations. Indeed, the high profile attacks on air command centers may have been prompted primarily by the heightened ground-to-ground missile risk, rather than to the cover story of protecting allied flyers from ground-to-air fire. The Pentagon admitted that most of the Allied attacks against the Iraqi installations failed to accomplish their missions.

The new Israeli administration may have reason to be pleased by the American focus on Iraq, and the strategic coordination and information sharing between the US and Israel. However, the apparent readiness of both Iraq and Syria to launch missiles against Israeli targets is a cause for grave concern in Jerusalem. Former Ambassador Zalman Shoval, in Sharon's inner circle, told Israel Radio this morning that the development time for an Iraqi nuclear device was "very short, between one and three years." All that Saddam lacked, he said, was access to the money and materials for the final development push.

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