Israel's daily newsmagazine

 
 


Israelis debate likelihood of missile attacks from Iraq, Lebanon
By Ellis Shuman   September 23, 2001
 

09/23 IDF: Iraq not involved in attacks; Iran maybe
Jerusalem Post

09/21 Report blames Iraqis
San Francisco Examiner

09/19 Who did it? Foreign Report presents an alternative view
Janes Foreign Report

The Gulf War
Jewish Virtual Library





Comparing Israel to its neighbors



Binyamin Ben-Eliezer



Hizbullah




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Suggestions that Iraq is a potential target of the United States-led coalition in the war against terrorism have raised apprehensions that Saddam Hussein could unleash a missile strike on Israel. Defense Ministry spokesmen admit they are preparing for such an eventuality, but there are indications that the IDF is more concerned about a possible Hizbullah attack as a result of American attacks on terrorist bases in Lebanon.

Director of Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Amos Malka told Yediot Aharonot that he sees no need for Israeli citizens to rush out and renew their gasmasks in the wake of reports that Iraq has been targeted by the United States. "From an intelligence point of view… there is no Iraqi angle [to the attacks]." A senior IDF officer told the Jerusalem Post that the IDF does not "have any information to support the possibility that Iraq is part of the plot." The officer suggested that Iran might have been involved in the attacks. "They are very deeply involved in everything that carries the label of Islamic radical terrorism," he said.

Despite Malka's statement, other military sources continue

 

"We are taking into account that Israel could be one of the targets for retaliation."
- Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer
to suggest Iraq's involvement. Intelligence sources reportedly told Israel's cabinet that the terror attacks in the United States were too big an operation for any one group and that a Middle East government, with Iraq as the most likely candidate, was probably the sponsor of the attack.

According to Jane's Foreign Report, "Israel's military intelligence service, Aman, suspects that Iraq is the state that sponsored the suicide attacks." According to the report, Iraqi intelligence officers shuttled frequently between Baghdad and Afghanistan, and established strong ties with Imad Mughniyeh, head of the special overseas operations for Hizbullah, and the Egyptian Ayman Al Zawahiri, senior member of Al-Qaida and possible successor to Osama bin Laden. Aman believes that the two are suspected of directing the terrorist attacks, according to the Foreign Report.

Aman director Malka dismisses these reports by categorically stating, "I cannot identify a direct connection between Iraq and the airplane hijackings and terrorist attacks in the United States."

Malka admits that discussions are taking place in Washington whether to attack Iraq. U.S. Senator Jesse Helms suggested yesterday that the U.S. military target Iraq and Saddam Hussein in a retaliatory strike. According to media reports, conservatives inside the Bush administration as well as congressional leaders like Helms are pressing the president to launch strikes on Baghdad with the aim of toppling Saddam's regime, which they consider unfinished business from the previous Bush administration.

"We are taking into account that Israel could be one of the targets for retaliation after an American attack," Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer told Maariv. "We are making all suitable preparations for this," he added.

"At this stage, I do not envision a situation where Iraq or Iran will take the initiative and attack us," Ben-Eliezer said. He added that Israel is already ready for the possibility it would be targeted after American action. Ben-Eliezer did not specify what preparations Israel has taken, but military analysts believe Israel's Arrow missile could provide the country with a better defense umbrella than the American Patriot missiles used in the 1991 Gulf War.

At the end of August Israel successfully tested the Arrow-2 anti-ballistic missile system. The system detects incoming missiles and then the Arrow-2 missile is fired to destroy them. The Israeli Air Force has declared the Arrow-2 semi-operational and currently deploys one battery, with a second battery due to be deployed soon. According to media sources, the Arrow-2 is the only operational anti-missile missile system in the world.

The Iraqi missile threat
An IDF officer told a briefing of reporters on Friday that he didn't "see any new threat from the Iraqis." According to the IDF assessment, Saddam Hussein has been able to retain a minor SCUD missile offensive capability. The Iraqis are believed to have about half a dozen SCUD missile launchers and a few dozen missiles. According to reports, some are also believed to be armed with chemical, and possibly biological, warheads.

Maariv reports that the IDF does not regard as likely the possibility that Hussein would reveal these missiles, whose very existence he has repeatedly denied. The Iraqi leader would only act against Israel, according to IDF sources, if he felt that his personal safety and regime were threatened. In addition to launching SCUD missiles, Hussein could possibly send suicide fighter jet pilots to crash into Israeli targets, according to the sources.

Despite downplaying the Iraqi missile threat, the Home Front Command has opened additional gasmask distribution centers and lengthened opening hours to meet an increased demand by the public to refresh their units. Five additional stations were opened in the center of the country, and centers will be open twelve hours a day. On Thursday alone, 20,000 Israeli citizens replaced their gasmasks, compared to 3,000 on a normal day.

According to recent statistics supplied by the Home Front Command, nearly 40% of the Israeli population has outdated gasmask kits. Sources in the command suggest that Israelis renew their kits at this time despite the fact that no emergency has been declared.

Israeli hospitals have gone on heightened alert status to prepare for the eventuality of an attack against Israel. The status puts doctors and medical terms on standby readiness, and lists and contact information of staff are being kept up-to-date. Dr. Yehuda Baruch, head of Medical Authority in the Health Ministry said that hospitals were asked to check their emergency supplies and all reported that they are fully stocked.

Concern over possibility of Hizbullah attacks
Security officials are apparently more concerned of the possibility of attacks by the Hizbullah in response to an American military action. Media reports have speculated on the possibility that the U.S. would attack terrorist bases in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, and that the Hizbullah would retaliate against Israeli targets.

The Hizbullah could possibly launch Katyusha rockets against Israel in attempts to draw Israel into a conflict that would endanger a western coalition against terrorism. The Hizbullah could also possibly launch attacks against American targets in Lebanon and elsewhere, according to military sources.

A month ago Israeli security forces went on high alert along the northern border over reports that the Hizbullah planned to perpetrate an attack in the region. That tension was defused in the wake of the terrorist attacks in the United States. According to military sources, the Hizbullah has recently tried to infiltrate terrorists and bombing experts into Israel. Original media reports suggested that the perpetrator of the Nahariya suicide bombing attack on September 9 was a Hizbullah member who had crossed the border from Lebanon. This report later proved false, when the suicide bomber was identified as an Israeli Arab from the village of Abu Snan.