Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of IMRA, Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict. imra@netvision.net.il.
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Top 5 reasons to continue the ceasefire
By Dr. Aaron Lerner   June 19, 2001

While Israel Radio diplomatic correspondent Yoni Ben Menachem reported this morning that the main reason Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has decided to continue with the unilateral cease-fire is that he is going to Washington next week, there are many other reasons to continue with the current situation:

1. At the start of Oslo, Shimon Peres explained that the settlers would only be a problem in the short run. The expectation that the settlers would run for their lives has not, however, panned out and in fact Jewish population growth rates in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip has consistently outstripped most areas within the Green Line. Families tend to change their place of residence during the summer to avoid disturbing the school year. Continued attacks against Jews over the summer may finally succeed in breaking their spirit and convince many to leave.

2. The longer the violence continues, the greater the possibility that some settlers decide to take the law into their own hands. Such activity can be used as part of a program to strip the settlers of public support. The ideal result would be if a new "Jewish underground" group forms (with or without the help of another Avishai Raviv) whose members can then be arrested. If played properly, the arrests, arraignments, trials and spillover can support a campaign against the settlers and their supporters for months.

3. The longer the violence continues, the greater the chance that Israel ultimately finds itself expected to enunciate what "compromises" it is willing to offer. And once these positions are spelled out, Israel will find that any support it may have gained for enduring the violence will evaporate. Rising world pressure will help FM Peres and others to convince their exhausted colleagues to make even greater concessions.

4. Under the current Sharon plan, that supports selective closure, the
Jericho casino should open any day now, to the financial benefit of many interested parties.

5. To fight back against the PA now just wouldn't be fair play:

	There is a large joint American-Turkish-Israeli air exercise taking place now in Turkey within close proximity to Syria, deterring intervention by Syria and other Arabs states in response to an attack on the Palestinians.
	The Iraqis have not yet received delivery of most of the tank transporters that they ordered recently, making it harder for them to come to the Palestinians' aid.
	In the summer, suicide bombers wearing coats don't fit into a crowd, making it harder for Palestinians to respond to a decisive attack with a wave of bombing.

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