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Before the boom By Reuven Koret July 15, 2001 At first glance, it might appear to be an almost normal summer here in Israel. Weather's fine, the kids are out of school, people are taking vacations. The pace slows down a bit. But the summer is not normal. The tourists have stayed away. Jewish drivers and their families are being shot down almost daily. Mortar shells fall every night. Bombers are trying desperately to penetrate our borders, to get to our population centers. For most of the year we have been in a state of low-level armed conflict. The slogan that "restraint is strength" is being replaced by justifications for "preemptive self-defense" and "revolving door retaliation." It just can't go on like this. Talk of peace has given way to a stream of threats of escalation from all sides, reports of missile and anti-missile test-firings around the region, rumors of unusual military maneuvers. The question appears not if, but when. This summer, if local and foreign reports are to be believed, Israel is going to war. The following scenario may never occur. It is not a prediction, not a prophecy. The military plans described have been leaked to the local and foreign press, but they may never be pulled from the Chief of Staff's desk drawer. But the critical components of a cataclysmic chain reaction are already undeniably lined up like dominoes. Once triggered, the subsequent steps may prove unstoppable. But it is not at all clear that our planners and leaders have seen the process through to its likely consequences. Even if it proves totally false, the following scenario is a hypothetical possibility worth considering now. Because we will not get a second chance to play it again, after the fact. The scenario begins when a young Islamic man walks or drives into a place crowded with Jews, explodes himself, killing or maiming all those around him. Or maybe it will just take a touch-tone call to a bomb-rigged cell-phone. The camera crews will rush to the scene and show the familiar scenes of bloody carnage, ambulances, and tears. The radio and TV stations will launch "open wave" coverage of the cascading events. There will be demonstrations of Israelis demanding an end to restraint, demanding revenge. There will be a rush of phone calls, to families and loved ones, and to reserve units. Cabinet ministers and senior military officials will convene in special session. After hours behind closed doors, they will emerge with a terse statement. Soon after, it will start. The sky will fill with the beat of choppers and the roar of fighters. From that point on, there will be great difficulty in ascertaining facts. There will be dire rumors. Censorship will be imposed. The fog of war will roll in fast. The air action is likely to be decisive. The IAF will seek early to control the skies and eliminate opposition. Syrian radar, missile bases, and fighter planes will be targeted. Air actions will be launched against Egypt, Jordan, even Iraq. The Patriots and the Arrows will be on highest alert to spot and intercept incoming missiles. The ground fighting is sure to be ferocious. Israeli and Palestinian forces will expend their pent-up hatred in orgies of fire and blood. The IDF will search out and destroy Palestinian strongholds, and they will seek out the militants, town by town, village by village. They will kill and arrest and expel them, and many others. For their part, Palestinian forces will attack IDF bases and patrols. They will enter Jewish settlements and try to kill civilians. Many, on both sides, will flee their homes to save their lives. Israel will suffer heavy casualties, and it will be compelled to inflict casualties still heavier. We will witness, and suffer, and commit, terrible deeds. In war, as in war. If an Arab weapon of mass destruction should make it through to the Israeli heartland, we enter another scenario, yet more terrible, only adequately described in the Holy Bible. The entire region will quake, and the whole world will tremble in its violent wake. Yet the results of even a limited "conventional" war is likely to be, as in most wars, an adjustment of borders, a transfer of populations, and a procession of mass death. New facts will be created. New maps will be drawn. Heated calls for UN intervention will follow. Israel will be isolated as never before. There will be Security Council resolutions and sanctions. International conferences will be held and multinational "peacekeepers" will assemble. Crusaders of morality will issues calls to liberate the Holy Land and save the Palestinian remnant from the Zionists. There will come pious calls to bring Sharon before a world tribunal, not just for alleged past war crimes but for present ones. There will be demands, even from erstwhile friends, to extradite, try, and convict Israeli military and political leaders. There will be calls by the international community to isolate and punish the Jewish State for its actions. Israelis and Jews abroad will express outrage at the hypocrisy of it all. Anti-Jewish riots may break out in Europe. Some people of conscience are likely to rally around us. Most of the world will not, including many Jews, who will say we brought it all on ourselves. The powers that be will issue a solemn ultimatum: roll back from lands occupied, evacuate Eastern Jerusalem, remove the settlers, allow the return of refugees, admit an armed international force, return to the status quo ante. "The world is holding its breath," the TV anchors and talking heads will say, awaiting the response of the Jewish State. And so we Israelis wait, even as we go about our daily routines and enjoy what's left of this strange summer. We wait for what is to come next, the event we will remember, as a time-stamp, for the rest of our lives. We pray it may never come, we fear it is inevitable. One finger of a true believer may be all it takes. One press of a button. One more boom.
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© 2001 Koret Communications Ltd. All rights reserved. Terms of Use. |
