Avi Davis is a senior editorial columnist for Jewsweek.com and the author of The Crucible of Conflict: Jews, Arabs and the West Bank Dilemma, to be published in the Fall.
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	What was behind Sharon's warning to the West

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's accusation that the United States was sacrificing Israel's security in the interests of coalition building let loose a torrent of criticism against the Israeli leader and led to the opening of the most awkward gulf between the two democratic nations in recent memory.

But while Sharon seemed bellicose in the face of U.S. preparations for the war that now has begun, Foreign Minister Shimon Peres appeared measured. Where Sharon defined Israel's security needs in inflammatory language, referring to the West's sellout of Czechoslovakia to Hitler in 1938, Peres expressed understanding of the West's needs. The difference in approach made many in the West think that the uneasy alliance between Sharon and Peres in their fragile national unity government may soon come to an end.

But there will be no change in the composition of Israel's government for some time and for good reason: Israelis overwhelmingly endorse their government. The unity government's approval rating has hovered between 70% and 75% for close to nine months, and its continuity is regarded as vital to Israel's security, particularly when the country faces a high risk of external attack.

Sharon also has more than good reason to see the unity government survive. His Likud faction is weak, holding only 19 of the Knesset's 120 seats. If Labor bolts, he would be forced to call new elections, which would be highly unpopular during a time of crisis.

In addition, he must combat disaffection within his own camp. The nationalist faction within Likud is dissatisfied with the government's concessions to the left in its policy of restraint against Palestinian terror. It has threatened an internal putsch to remove Sharon and replace him with a more amenable leader.

And awaiting Sharon's downfall is former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The darling of U.S. Senate subcommittees, Netanyahu salivates at the prospect of Sharon's demise. Yet as long as Sharon remains at the helm of a national unity government with such high approval ratings, he is protected both from Netanyahu and from the more fervent nationalists within his own government.

Peres has his own convincing reasons for wishing to remain in the government. Consistently betrayed and used by Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, Peres, at 78, is in his political dotage and almost certainly will never have another opportunity to play such an influential role in shaping his country's foreign policy. With the career-defining Oslo peace process lying in ruins about his feet, Peres' reputation as a farsighted statesman has settled into premature obsolescence. His role as foreign minister may be a last-ditch effort to redeem it from the permanent censure of history.

Judging the flow of Israel's quirky political currents is never easy, and today's international turbulence makes prediction all the more difficult.

Nevertheless, Sharon and Peres, politicians who have played singularly determinative roles in their country's history, will remain as leaders of its unity government for the foreseeable future. Although each may complain bitterly of the other's clumsiness, this pas de deux will continue until someone chooses to silence the orchestra. The baton for that ensemble rests, of course, in the palm of the maestro of Middle East terrorism himself, Arafat. His continued failure to combat terror almost certainly will ensure the existence of a united front against him.

For the United States, conducting its own uneasy tango with disreputable partners in other parts of the world, it would be foolish to ignore Israeli sensitivities as that country suffers from remorseless terrorist assaults. But critics of the U.S. might well recall other words spoken by Capulet: "You and I are past our dancing days."

Better, though, to dance than to die.

Views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.

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